Establish the domain of validity of the inverse-power-law time-delay distribution

Establish the domain of validity of the commonly assumed inverse-power-law time-delay distribution for isolated binary black-hole formation, including how its validity depends on metallicity, stellar winds, mass transfer, and natal kicks.

Background

For isolated binaries undergoing mass transfer, the time-delay distribution is often modeled as p(t_d) proportional to t_d{-1}, based on an assumed inverse distribution of binary semi-major axes at formation. The paper notes that this assumption may not apply universally and that several uncertain physical ingredients can alter the resulting delay-time distribution.

The unresolved issue concerns determining when the inverse-power-law approximation is physically justified and quantifying its dependence on metallicity, stellar winds, mass-transfer physics, and natal-kick prescriptions. This uncertainty directly affects predictions for merger rates and gravitational-wave clustering.

References

However, the domain of validity of this assumption is highly uncertain and likely depends on the treatment of metallicity, stellar winds, mass transfer, or natal kicks.

Breaking binary formation mechanism degeneracies with gravitational wave clustering  (2609.09083 - Bellomo et al., 8 Sep 2026) in Section 3, paragraph discussing theoretical uncertainties in the time-delay distribution