Assess Diversity of Predictions Across Research Groups in the JCP Prediction Challenge

Quantify how different the predictions made by diverse research groups participating in the Journal of Chemical Physics Prediction Challenge are for gas-phase cyclobutanone photoexcited at 200 nm, including differences in predicted S2 lifetimes, internal conversion pathways, and product branching ratios.

Background

The Prediction Challenge invites multiple independent groups to forecast outcomes of upcoming ultrafast electron diffraction experiments on Rydberg-excited cyclobutanone. Because groups will use distinct methodologies, software, and analysis protocols, results may vary widely.

The authors emphasize that at the time of writing, the degree of divergence across groups remains unknown, even within their own paper where disparate methods produced radically different predictions. Establishing the extent of disagreement is necessary to evaluate consensus and methodological robustness.