Determine the policy-invariant aggregate Phillips-curve slope

Determine the aggregate, price-side Phillips-curve slope on the activity variable used by monetary policy, over the relevant policy horizon and invariant to changes in the monetary-policy rule.

Background

The paper distinguishes among several objects that are often called the Phillips-curve slope: regional non-tradeable-price slopes, firm-level marginal-cost pass-through coefficients, impulse-response measures, and aggregate coefficients conditional on an exclusion restriction or policy model. Modern identification strategies generally recover one of these narrower or conditional objects rather than the aggregate structural slope required for policy counterfactuals.

The unresolved issue is whether the regional, microeconomic, or shock-specific estimates can be translated into the policy-relevant aggregate price-side slope without relying on a maintained general-equilibrium model or an assumption about the policy regime.

References

What is not settled is the object a policy calculation needs, and the next section shows that the rule’s history ends at the same place.

— Seventy Years of Identifying the Phillips Curve and the Policy Rule  (2610.06007 - Vansteenberghe, 5 Oct 2026) in Section 3, subsection “Which κ”