Determine whether major Earth system components are approaching bifurcation points

Determine whether major Earth system components—specifically the Amazon rainforest and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—are approaching bifurcation points that would induce qualitative shifts in their equilibrium states.

Background

The paper reviews how many complex systems are interpreted through the lens of bifurcations and early-warning signals such as increased variance and autocorrelation. However, it notes that for some prominent Earth system components, the empirical status of imminent critical transitions is not firmly established.

This unresolved question is particularly salient in the context of the paper’s thesis: non-normal dynamics can produce pseudo-bifurcations that mimic early-warning signals typically attributed to true bifurcations. Establishing whether systems like the Amazon rainforest and AMOC are actually nearing bifurcation points is crucial for interpreting observed signals and for informing risk assessment and policy.