Dice Question Streamline Icon: https://streamlinehq.com

Consistency conjecture: existence of an evaporation‑consistent, physically reasonable derivation of Hawking radiation

Establish the existence of at least one derivation of Hawking radiation that relies only on physically reasonable assumptions and remains valid in evaporating black hole spacetimes (i.e., is evaporation‑consistent), thereby avoiding dependence on the collapse‑Schwarzschild idealization.

Information Square Streamline Icon: https://streamlinehq.com

Background

The paper formulates an idealization paradox: several mainstream derivations of Hawking radiation (Hawking 1975; Fredenhagen–Haag 1990; algebraic approaches) depend on global properties of collapse‑Schwarzschild, yet backreaction arguments imply those properties fail in evaporating spacetimes. To safeguard the physical reality of Hawking radiation and evaporation, the author proposes a conjecture asserting that there exists a derivation that is both evaporation‑consistent and based on physically reasonable assumptions.

The conjecture is explicitly named the “consistency conjecture” and the author states an expectation that it is true, while noting that some candidate derivations exist but require fuller analysis.

References

To protect these phenomena from the paradox, one may claim that there exists a derivation of Hawking radiation that uses physically reasonable properties and is evaporation-consistent. Call this existence claim the consistency conjecture. The `physically reasonable' qualification is necessary because a physically implausible evaporation-consistent derivation (such as a derivation in a two-dimensional spacetime) should not alleviate our concerns. I expect the consistency conjecture is true.

— The Black Hole Idealization Paradox (2404.10028 - Ryder, 15 Apr 2024) in Section 1, Introduction