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Clarify the impact of recent climate trends on US agricultural TFP

Determine whether observed recent climate trends in the United States have already produced a measurable net impact on national agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP), and ascertain if the net impact to date is negative, as suggested by projections around 2025 and analyses referencing observed weather trends through 2022.

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Background

The paper estimates the response of US agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to public R&D investment and weather, and projects impacts of climate change using CMIP6 scenarios. Projections indicate detrimental effects by 2025, yet the authors note uncertainty regarding the actual impacts of recent historical climate trends on TFP.

Figure S16 in the Supplementary Materials analyzes observed historical weather trends (1950–2022) and their influence on TFP, but the authors explicitly state that the impact of these recent trends is not yet clear, motivating the need to resolve whether TFP has already been significantly affected.

References

This indicates that climate change is projected to be having a detrimental effect on US agricultural productivity, although the impact of recent climate trends is not yet clear (Fig. S16).

— Large increases in public R&D investment are needed to avoid declines of US agricultural productivity (2405.08159 - Ortiz-Bobea et al., 13 May 2024) in Main Text, Projected impact of climate change on agricultural TFP (near Fig. 3; referencing Fig. S16)