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Arithmetic characterization of algebraic isomonodromy leaves

Establish that for a smooth projective family \mathscr{X}\to S over a finitely generated integral \mathbb{Z}-algebra R and a flat bundle (\mathscr{E},\nabla) on a fiber X/R, the leaf of the isomonodromy foliation through [(X,\mathscr{E},\nabla)] is algebraic if and only if it is integral, and that this holds if and only if the leaf is p-integral to order \omega(p) for almost all primes p, where \omega(p)/p\to\infty.

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Background

This conjecture is a non-linear analogue of the Grothendieck–Katz p-curvature conjecture. It proposes arithmetic integrality conditions that precisely detect algebraicity of leaves of the isomonodromy foliation on the non-abelian de Rham moduli over a base S. It is intended to classify finite orbits under monodromy (π1(S)) via integrality and p-integrality conditions.

References

Conjecture [Imprecise conjecture] Let R be a finitely-generated integral \mathbb{Z}-algebra with fraction field K and \mathscr{X}\to S a smooth projective morphism of R-schemes. Let s\in S(R) be an R-point, X=\mathscr{X}s, and (\mathscr{E}, \nabla) a flat bundle on X/R. Then the leaf of the isomonodromy foliation through [ (X, \mathscr{E},\nabla)]\in \mathscr{M}{dR}(\mathscr{X}/S) is algebraic if and only if it is integral. This occurs if and only if it is p-integral to order \omega(p), for almost all primes p.

Motives, mapping class groups, and monodromy (2409.02234 - Litt, 3 Sep 2024) in Conjecture (Imprecise conjecture), Section 4.2