Probing redshift-dependent systematics in the Hubble tension: Model-independent $H_0$ constraints from DESI R2 (2509.20898v1)

Abstract: We present a model-independent determination of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) using the latest observational data from multiple cosmological probes. By combining baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from the second data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI DR2), cosmic chronometer $H(z)$ data, and the Pantheon Plus Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) sample, we reconstruct the cosmic expansion history through Gaussian process regression without assuming a specific cosmological model or relying on sound horizon calibration. Our analysis incorporates the complete covariance structure of the measurements and yields $H_0$ constraints at five distinct redshifts: $65.72 \pm 1.99$ (z=0.51), $67.78 \pm 1.75$ (z=0.706), $70.74 \pm 1.39$ (z=0.934), $71.04 \pm 1.93$ (z=1.321), and $68.37 \pm 3.95~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$ (z=1.484). The optimal combination of these measurements gives $\hat{H}_0 = 69.0 \pm 1.0~\mathrm{km~s^{-1}~Mpc^{-1}}$ with 1.4\% precision, which occupies an intermediate position between the Planck CMB result and the SH0ES local measurement and is consistent with the TRGB result. Rather than providing a single integrated $H_0$ value, our approach delivers independent constraints at multiple redshifts, thereby enabling a detailed investigation of potential redshift-dependent systematic effects that could contribute to the Hubble tension. We identify significant correlations between adjacent redshift bins ($\rho = -0.033$ to $0.26$), primarily arising from the BAO covariance and reconstruction effects. These results demonstrate a clear redshift evolution in Hubble constant measurements and suggest that the Hubble tension may involve more complex redshift-dependent effects than a simple dichotomy between early and late universe probes.