The Host Galaxies of PTA Sources: Converting Supermassive BH Binary Parameters into EM Observables (2505.11598v1)

Abstract: Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are approaching the sensitivity required to resolve for the first time gravitational wave (GW) signals from individual supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries. However, the large uncertainty in the localisation of the source will make the identification of its host environment challenging. We show how the posterior probability function of binary parameters inferred by the standard GW analysis can be converted into distributions of apparent magnitudes of the host galaxy in the infrared (IR) and optical bands. We do so for two different scenarios: one in which the host is a regular early-type galaxy (ETG), and one in which the binary resides in an active galactic nucleus (AGN). We estimate the binary parameter space PTAs can cover in the near and intermediate future and estimate whether their hosts will be detectable in all-sky electromagnetic surveys. A PTA with a baseline of 20 years and 116 pulsars, resembling the upcoming data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA)can detect binaries out to a luminosity distance of 2Gpc (which corresponds to a redshift of $z \approx 0.36$) under the most optimistic scenario for detection, while a PTA with a baseline of 30 years and 200 pulsars can reach out to a maximum distance slightly greater than 3Gpc ($z \approx 0.53$). We find that the host galaxies of all binaries that are detectable by a PTA with a baseline of 20 years are above the threshold for the WISE and SuperCOSMOS, and therefore they are expected to be present in those surveys, if they lie outside the Milky Way plane. 2MASS becomes incomplete for hosts of binary systems more massive than $10^{9.8}$ solar masses located at a luminosity distance from Earth greater than 1 Gpc. The EM surveys become slightly more incomplete when we consider the sensitivity of PTAs with baselines of 25 and 30 years, as PTAs can detect binaries to larger distances.