$t$-Testing the Waters: Empirically Validating Assumptions for Reliable A/B-Testing (2502.04793v2)

Abstract: A/B-tests are a cornerstone of experimental design on the web, with wide-ranging applications and use-cases. The statistical $t$-test comparing differences in means is the most commonly used method for assessing treatment effects, often justified through the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). The CLT ascertains that, as the sample size grows, the sampling distribution of the Average Treatment Effect converges to normality, making the $t$-test valid for sufficiently large sample sizes. When outcome measures are skewed or non-normal, quantifying what "sufficiently large" entails is not straightforward. To ensure that confidence intervals maintain proper coverage and that $p$-values accurately reflect the false positive rate, it is critical to validate this normality assumption. We propose a practical method to test this, by analysing repeatedly resampled A/A-tests. When the normality assumption holds, the resulting $p$-value distribution should be uniform, and this property can be tested using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. This provides an efficient and effective way to empirically assess whether the $t$-test's assumptions are met, and the A/B-test is valid. We demonstrate our methodology and highlight how it helps to identify scenarios prone to inflated Type-I errors. Our approach provides a practical framework to ensure and improve the reliability and robustness of A/B-testing practices.