Optimization with Multi-sourced Reference Information and Unknown Trust: A Distributionally Robust Approach

Abstract: In problems that involve input parameter information gathered from multiple data sources with varying reliability, incorporating users' trust about different sources in decision-optimization models can potentially improve solution performance and reliability. In this work, we propose a novel multi-reference distributionally robust optimization (MR-DRO) framework, where the model inputs are uncertain and their probability distributions can be statistically inferred from multiple data sources. Via nonparametric data fusion, we construct a Wasserstein ambiguity set to minimize the worst-case expected value of a stochastic objective function, accounting for both uncertainty and unknown reliability of information sources. We reformulate the MR-DRO model as a linear program given linear objective and constraints in the original problem. We also incorporate a dynamic trust update mechanism that adjusts the trust for each source based on its performance over time. In addition, we introduce the concept of probability dominance to identify sources with dominant trust. Via solving instances of resource allocation and portfolio optimization, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the trust-informed MR-DRO approach compared to traditional optimization frameworks relying on a single data source. Our results highlight the significance of integrating (dynamic) user trust in decision making under uncertainty, particularly when given diverse and potentially conflicting input data.