Branch length statistics in phylogenetic trees under constant-rate birth-death dynamics

Abstract: Phylogenetic trees represent the evolutionary relationships between extant lineages, where extinct or non-sampled lineages are omitted. Extending the work of Stadler and collaborators, this paper focuses on the branch lengths in phylogenetic trees arising under a constant-rate birth-death model. We derive branch length distributions of phylogenetic branches with and without random sampling of individuals of the extant population under two distinct statistical scenarios: a fixed age of the birth-death process and a fixed number of individuals at the time of observation. We find that branches connected to the tree leaves (pendant branches) and branches in the interior of the tree behave very differently under sampling; pendant branches grow longer without limit as the sampling probability is decreased, whereas the interior branch lengths quickly reach an asymptotic distribution that does not depend on the sampling probability.