Bayesian analysis for pretest-posttest binary outcomes with adaptive significance levels

Abstract: Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be taken into account. However, in more straightforward scenarios, where only two stages of an experiment are observed (pre-treatment vs. post-treatment), there are only a few tools available, mainly for continuous outcomes. Thus, this work introduces a Bayesian statistical methodology for comparing paired samples in binary pretest-posttest scenarios. We establish a Bayesian probabilistic model for the inferential analysis of the unknown quantities, which is validated and refined through simulation analyses, and present an application to a dataset taken from the Television School and Family Smoking Prevention and Cessation Project (TVSFP) (Flay et al., 1995). The application of the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hypothesis testing, along with the implementation of adaptive significance levels in the decision-making process, is included.