Quantification of vaccine waning as a challenge effect

Abstract: Knowing whether vaccine protection wanes over time is important for health policy and drug development. However, quantifying waning effects is difficult. A simple contrast of vaccine efficacy at two different times compares different populations of individuals: those who were uninfected at the first time versus those who remain uninfected until the second time. Thus, the contrast of vaccine efficacy at early and late times can not be interpreted as a causal effect. We propose to quantify vaccine waning using the challenge effect, which is a contrast of outcomes under controlled exposures to the infectious agent following vaccination. We identify sharp bounds on the challenge effect under non-parametric assumptions that are broadly applicable in vaccine trials using routinely collected data. We demonstrate that the challenge effect can differ substantially from the conventional vaccine efficacy due to depletion of susceptible individuals from the risk set over time. Finally, we apply the methods to derive bounds on the waning of the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine using data from a placebo-controlled randomized trial. Our estimates of the challenge effect suggest waning protection after 2 months beyond administration of the second vaccine dose.