Firm-Dispatchable Power and its Requirement in a Power System based on Variable Generation (2403.10869v1)

Abstract: Many countries have commenced a transition from fossil fuel-based electricity generation systems to sustainable systems based on wind and solar generation. It is often noted that the least cost approach would involve a massive scale-up in the building of variable renewables, supported by battery storage and gas peaking plants. The required backup should be firm-dispatchable generation rather than peaking power. The wind and solar generation aspects for this system are clearly defined and understood, however, the term firm-dispatchable power is not defined and the specific requirements are poorly understood. This study seeks to define firm-dispatchable power in this context and its requirement in the sustainable generation system. The study compares 100% renewable generation scenarios from South Africa, Texas, and the UK to demonstrate the requirement for this firm-dispatchable generation. The results indicate that firm-dispatchable generation must be available to replace the renewable generation completely. The required installed capacity for this firm-dispatchable generation does not vary with the distinct demand profiles of the different locations or their comparative renewable generation profiles. It also does not change significantly with the use of energy storage. The usage for this firm-dispatchable generation will vary due to the comparative economics of its use, but the requirement for its installation does not change.