The Development of Investment Planning Models for the United Kingdoms Wind and Solar Fleets

Abstract: Previous work has resulted in the development of an energy model able to calculate wind and solar fleet efficiencies. However, for investment planning purposes, it is necessary to calculate from the lowest economically acceptable efficiencies how much wind and solar generation would be economically justified. The paper explains how this objective has been achieved with arrays (investment planning tables) created after carrying out a structured investigation of the behaviour of the electricity system over the whole of its operational range. The tables are then applied to National Grid prediction of the size and composition of the system in the year 2035. A conclusion is reached that wind and solar generation will only be able to supply about 70% of electrical demand, the other 30% being provided by dispatchable sources of generation, which must be sufficiently fast acting to maintain electricity system stability, such as the use of combined cycle gas turbines. This limit on deployment of wind and solar generation restricts their ability to decarbonise the electricity system and is likely to lead in 2035 to a residual of 72 million tonnes per annum of carbon dioxide emissions which wind and solar generations will be unable to address