Shipping traffic through the Arctic Ocean: spatial distribution, temporal evolution and its dependence on the sea ice extent (2403.01856v1)

Abstract: The reduction in sea ice cover with Arctic warming facilitates the transit of ships through routes that are remarkably shorter than the traditional shipping routes. Automatic Identification System (AIS), ideally designed to avoid vessel collisions, transmits on vessel navigation information (currently 27 types of messages) such as name, position or speed, is a powerful data source to monitor the progress of Arctic shipping as the ice cover decreases. Based on the analysis of an online platform collecting shipping AIS data, we quantified the spatial distribution of shipping through the Arctic Ocean, its intensity and the temporal evolution, in relation to the area released by the sea ice area. Shipping through the Arctic Ocean is distributed spatially following a heavy-tailed distribution, implying heavy traffic through a limited Arctic area, with an exponent that depends on the vessel category. Fishing is the category with the largest spatial spread, with the width of shipping routes correlated with the proximal sea ice area. The time evolution of these routes is characterized by increasing extended periods of shipping activity through the year. AIS data offers valuable information on the activity of the international fleet worldwide. In the context of the new international agreements, it is a valuable source to monitor shipping, fishing and the potential impact in marine life among other aspects. Here we have focused on the Arctic shipping in recent years, which is rapidly growing, particularly around the Northeastern and Northwest Passage coastal routes, providing an opportunity for the design of shorter shipping routes and reduced greenhouse gas emissions from transport of goods, but at a risk of impacts on the Arctic ecosystem.