Data-Driven Prediction of Seismic Intensity Distributions Featuring Hybrid Classification-Regression Models

Abstract: Earthquakes are among the most immediate and deadly natural disasters that humans face. Accurately forecasting the extent of earthquake damage and assessing potential risks can be instrumental in saving numerous lives. In this study, we developed linear regression models capable of predicting seismic intensity distributions based on earthquake parameters: location, depth, and magnitude. Because it is completely data-driven, it can predict intensity distributions without geographical information. The dataset comprises seismic intensity data from earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of Japan between 1997 and 2020, specifically containing 1,857 instances of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 or greater, sourced from the Japan Meteorological Agency. We trained both regression and classification models and combined them to take advantage of both to create a hybrid model. The proposed model outperformed commonly used Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) in terms of the correlation coefficient, F1 score, and MCC. Furthermore, the proposed model can predict even abnormal seismic intensity distributions, a task at conventional GMPEs often struggle.