Probabilistic MIMO U-Net: Efficient and Accurate Uncertainty Estimation for Pixel-wise Regression

Abstract: Uncertainty estimation in machine learning is paramount for enhancing the reliability and interpretability of predictive models, especially in high-stakes real-world scenarios. Despite the availability of numerous methods, they often pose a trade-off between the quality of uncertainty estimation and computational efficiency. Addressing this challenge, we present an adaptation of the Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) framework -- an approach exploiting the overparameterization of deep neural networks -- for pixel-wise regression tasks. Our MIMO variant expands the applicability of the approach from simple image classification to broader computer vision domains. For that purpose, we adapted the U-Net architecture to train multiple subnetworks within a single model, harnessing the overparameterization in deep neural networks. Additionally, we introduce a novel procedure for synchronizing subnetwork performance within the MIMO framework. Our comprehensive evaluations of the resulting MIMO U-Net on two orthogonal datasets demonstrate comparable accuracy to existing models, superior calibration on in-distribution data, robust out-of-distribution detection capabilities, and considerable improvements in parameter size and inference time. Code available at github.com/antonbaumann/MIMO-Unet