Topic Modeling Based on Two-Step Flow Theory: Application to Tweets about Bitcoin

Abstract: Digital cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have exploded in recent years in both popularity and value. By their novelty, cryptocurrencies tend to be both volatile and highly speculative. The capricious nature of these coins is helped facilitated by social media networks such as Twitter. However, not everyone's opinion matters equally, with most posts garnering little to no attention. Additionally, the majority of tweets are retweeted from popular posts. We must determine whose opinion matters and the difference between influential and non-influential users. This study separates these two groups and analyzes the differences between them. It uses Hypertext-induced Topic Selection (HITS) algorithm, which segregates the dataset based on influence. Topic modeling is then employed to uncover differences in each group's speech types and what group may best represent the entire community. We found differences in language and interest between these two groups regarding Bitcoin and that the opinion leaders of Twitter are not aligned with the majority of users. There were 2559 opinion leaders (0.72% of users) who accounted for 80% of the authority and the majority (99.28%) users for the remaining 20% out of a total of 355,139 users.