Nonlinear regression models to forecast PM$_{2.5}$ concentration in Wuhan, China

Abstract: Forecasting PM${2.5}$ concentration is important to solving air pollution problems in Wuhan. This paper proposes a PM${2.5}$ concentration forecast model based on nonlinear regression, including a single-value forecast model and an interval forecast model. The single-value forecast model can precisely forecast PM${2.5}$ concentration for the next day, with forecast bias about 6 $\mu g/m^3$ in goodness of fit analysis. The interval forecast model can efficiently forecast high-concentration and low-concentration days, which covers 60%-80% observed samples in model validation. Moreover, this paper combines the PM${2.5}$ concentration forecast model with NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 to realize its forecast application, then develops NCEP CFS2's PM${2.5}$ concentration forecast model to enhance forecast accuracy. The results indicate that the PM${2.5}$ concentration forecast model has good capacity for independent forecasting.