Time-variant Seismic Resilience Analysis Model for Water Distribution Systems

Abstract: Water distribution systems (WDS) sustained severe damage in the past earthquakes. While previous studies investigated the seismic performance of buried water pipelines, the effects of corrosion on the pipeline seismic performance were ignored. The presence of corrosion on metallic pipeline walls aggravates seismic damage level because corrosion significantly reduces the pipeline strength. Most of the existing buried pipelines in the United States are aged and non-ductile metallic pipelines, which are vulnerable to seismic loading. To ensure continuous and smooth water supply to communities during and after earthquakes, it is necessary to evaluate the system-level seismic performance of WDS considering the aging effect in corroded pipelines. The current study develops a new framework of estimating the seismic resilience of WDS considering the time-variant effect of corrosion. The study formulates an approach that : (1) determines the seismic failure probability of pipeline using an extended American Lifelines Alliance (ALA) model that account for the effects of time-dependent corrosion; and (2) estimates system-level seismic performance based on pipeline reliability and edge betweenness centrality. The proposed approach is illustrated with a scenario earthquake hazard for mid-size WDS. The outcomes of the study reveal that the presence of corrosion on pipelines significantly reduces the system-level seismic performance of WDS. Most cast iron pipes have 100 years lifetime, system-level seismic resilience may decrease by 81% at high seismic wave intensity.