Towards Statistical Methods for Minimizing Effects of Failure Cascades

Abstract: This paper concerns the potential of corrective actions, such as generation and load dispatch on minimizing the effects of transmission line failures in electric power systems. Three loss functions (grid-centric, consumer-centric, and influence localization) are used to statistically evaluate the criticality of initial contingent failures. A learning scheme for both AC and DC grid models combine a Monte Carlo approach with a convex dynamic programming formulation and introduces an adaptive selection process, illustrated on the IEEE-30 bus system.