Using Interpretable Machine Learning to Predict Maternal and Fetal Outcomes

Abstract: Most pregnancies and births result in a good outcome, but complications are not uncommon and when they do occur, they can be associated with serious implications for mothers and babies. Predictive modeling has the potential to improve outcomes through better understanding of risk factors, heightened surveillance, and more timely and appropriate interventions, thereby helping obstetricians deliver better care. For three types of complications we identify and study the most important risk factors using Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a glass box model, in order to gain intelligibility: (i) Severe Maternal Morbidity (SMM), (ii) shoulder dystocia, and (iii) preterm preeclampsia. While using the interpretability of EBM's to reveal surprising insights into the features contributing to risk, our experiments show EBMs match the accuracy of other black-box ML methods such as deep neural nets and random forests.