A Retrospective Analysis using Deep-Learning Models for Prediction of Survival Outcome and Benefit of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Stage II/III Colorectal Cancer

Abstract: Most early-stage colorectal cancer (CRC) patients can be cured by surgery alone, and only certain high-risk early-stage CRC patients benefit from adjuvant chemotherapies. However, very few validated biomarkers are available to accurately predict survival benefit from postoperative chemotherapy. We developed a novel deep-learning algorithm (CRCNet) using whole-slide images from Molecular and Cellular Oncology (MCO) to predict survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II/III CRC. We validated CRCNet both internally through cross-validation and externally using an independent cohort from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We showed that CRCNet can accurately predict not only survival prognosis but also the treatment effect of adjuvant chemotherapy. The CRCNet identified high-risk subgroup benefits from adjuvant chemotherapy most and significant longer survival is observed among chemo-treated patients. Conversely, minimal chemotherapy benefit is observed in the CRCNet low- and medium-risk subgroups. Therefore, CRCNet can potentially be of great use in guiding treatments for Stage II/III CRC.