Logical Credal Networks

Abstract: This paper introduces Logical Credal Networks, an expressive probabilistic logic that generalizes many prior models that combine logic and probability. Given imprecise information represented by probability bounds and conditional probability bounds of logic formulas, this logic specifies a set of probability distributions over all interpretations. On the one hand, our approach allows propositional and first-order logic formulas with few restrictions, e.g., without requiring acyclicity. On the other hand, it has a Markov condition similar to Bayesian networks and Markov random fields that is critical in real-world applications. Having both these properties makes this logic unique, and we investigate its performance on maximum a posteriori inference tasks, including solving Mastermind games with uncertainty and detecting credit card fraud. The results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches, and its advantage lies in aggregating multiple sources of imprecise information.