A multi-stage machine learning model on diagnosis of esophageal manometry

Abstract: High-resolution manometry (HRM) is the primary procedure used to diagnose esophageal motility disorders. Its interpretation and classification includes an initial evaluation of swallow-level outcomes and then derivation of a study-level diagnosis based on Chicago Classification (CC), using a tree-like algorithm. This diagnostic approach on motility disordered using HRM was mirrored using a multi-stage modeling framework developed using a combination of various machine learning approaches. Specifically, the framework includes deep-learning models at the swallow-level stage and feature-based machine learning models at the study-level stage. In the swallow-level stage, three models based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) were developed to predict swallow type, swallow pressurization, and integrated relaxation pressure (IRP). At the study-level stage, model selection from families of the expert-knowledge-based rule models, xgboost models and artificial neural network(ANN) models were conducted, with the latter two model designed and augmented with motivation from the export knowledge. A simple model-agnostic strategy of model balancing motivated by Bayesian principles was utilized, which gave rise to model averaging weighted by precision scores. The averaged (blended) models and individual models were compared and evaluated, of which the best performance on test dataset is 0.81 in top-1 prediction, 0.92 in top-2 predictions. This is the first artificial-intelligence-style model to automatically predict CC diagnosis of HRM study from raw multi-swallow data. Moreover, the proposed modeling framework could be easily extended to multi-modal tasks, such as diagnosis of esophageal patients based on clinical data from both HRM and functional luminal imaging probe panometry (FLIP).