Effective mapping class group dynamics III: Counting filling closed curves on surfaces

Abstract: We prove a quantitative estimate with a power saving error term for the number of filling closed geodesics of a given topological type and length $\leq L$ on an arbitrary closed, orientable, negatively curved surface. More generally, we prove estimates of the same kind for the number of free homotopy classes of filling closed curves of a given topological type on a closed, orientable surface whose geometric intersection number with respect to a given filling geodesic current is $\leq L$. The proofs rely on recent progress made on the study of the effective dynamics of the mapping class group on Teichm\"uller space and the space of closed curves of a closed, orientable surface, and introduce a novel method for addressing counting problems of mapping class group orbits that naturally yields power saving error terms. This method is also applied to study counting problems of mapping class group orbits of Teichm\"uller space with respect to Thurston's asymmetric metric.