The imprint of X-ray photoevaporation of planet-forming discs on the orbital distribution of giant planets -- II. Theoretical predictions (2105.05908v2)

Abstract: Numerical models have shown that disc dispersal via internal photoevaporation driven by the host star can successfully reproduce the observed pile-up of warm Jupiters near 1-2 au. However, since a range of different mechanisms have been proposed to cause the same feature, clear observational diagnostics of disc dispersal leaving an imprint in the observed distribution of giant planets could help to constrain the dominant mechanisms. We aim to assess the impact of disc dispersal via X-ray driven-photoevaporation (XPE) onto giant planet separations in order to provide theoretical constraints on the location and size of any possible features related to this process within their observed orbital distribution. For this purpose, we perform a set of 1D population syntheses with varying initial conditions and correlate the gas giants' final parking locations with the X-ray luminosities of their host stars in order to quantify observables of this process within the $L_\mathrm{x}$-$a$-plane of these systems. We find that XPE indeed creates an underdensity of gas giants near the gravitational radius, with corresponding pile-ups inside and/or outside of this location. However, the size and location of these features are strongly dependent on the choice of initial conditions in our model, such as the assumed formation location of the planets. XPE can strongly affect the migration process of giant planets and leave potentially observable signatures within the observed orbital separations of giant planets. However, due to the simplistic approach employed in our model, which lacks a self-consistent treatment of planet formation within an evolving disc, a quantitative analysis of the final planet population orbits is not possible. Our results however strongly motivate future studies to include realistic disc dispersal mechanisms into global planet population synthesis models.