Online learning with exponential weights in metric spaces

Abstract: This paper addresses the problem of online learning in metric spaces using exponential weights. We extend the analysis of the exponentially weighted average forecaster, traditionally studied in a Euclidean settings, to a more abstract framework. Our results rely on the notion of barycenters, a suitable version of Jensen's inequality and a synthetic notion of lower curvature bound in metric spaces known as the measure contraction property. We also adapt the online-to-batch conversion principle to apply our results to a statistical learning framework.