On the relation of the COVID-19 reproduction number to the explosive timescales: the case of Italy (2101.06101v1)

Abstract: A great issue of discussion of an infectious disease is its basic reproduction number R0, which provides an estimation of the contagiousness of the disease. When R0 > 1, the disease spread will potentially lead to an outbreak, such that of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemics. During the evolution of an outbreak, various non-pharmaceutical interventions are employed, the impact of which is frequently assessed by the reduction that they introduce to the effective reproduction number Rt; reduction below 1 is an indication of eventual dying out of the disease spread. Motivated by the fact that R0 essentially expresses the stability of the disease-free equilibrium, in this work, Rt was examined in the view of timescale analysis. It was shown that during the evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy, when various interventions were in place, Rt had a clear relation with the explosive timescale characterizing the dynamics of the outbreak. In particular, it is shown that the existence of an explosive timescale during the progression of the epidemics implies Rt > 1, while its absence implies Rt < 1. In addition, as this timescale converges/diverges with the immediately slowest one, Rt approaches to/withdraws from its threshold value 1. These results suggest that timescale analysis can be utilized for the assessment of the impact of various interventions, since it reflects the insight provided by the effective reproduction number, without being hindered by the selection of the population model, nor the parameter estimation process followed for model calibration.