Modeling National Trends on Health in the Philippines Using ARIMA

Abstract: Health is a very important prerequisite in peoples well-being and happiness. Several studies were more focused on presenting the occurrence on specific disease like forecasting the number of dengue and malaria cases. This paper utilized the time series data for trend analysis and data forecasting using ARIMA model to visualize the trends of health data on the ten leading causes of deaths, leading cause of morbidity and leading cause of infants deaths particularly in the Philippines presented in a tabular data. Figures for each disease trend are presented individually with the use of the GRETL software. Forecasting results of the leading causes of death showed that Diseases of the heart, vascular system, accidents, Chronic lower respiratory diseases and Chronic Tuberculosis (all forms) showed a slight changed of the forecasted data, Malignant neoplasms showed unstable behavior of the forecasted data, and Pneumonia, diabetes mellitus, Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis and certain conditions originating in perinatal showed a decreasing patterns based on the forecasted data.