Feature Engineering for Data-driven Traffic State Forecast in Urban Road Networks

Abstract: Most traffic state forecast algorithms when applied to urban road networks consider only the links in close proximity to the target location. However, for longer-term forecasts also the traffic state of more distant links or regions of the network are expected to provide valuable information for a data-driven algorithm. This paper studies these expectations of using a network clustering algorithm and one year of Floating Car (FCD) collected by a large fleet of vehicles. First, a clustering algorithm is applied to the data in order to extract congestion-prone regions in the Munich city network. The level of congestion inside these clusters is analyzed with the help of statistical tools. Clear spatio-temporal congestion patterns and correlations between the clustered regions are identified. These correlations are integrated into a K- Nearest Neighbors (KNN) travel time prediction algorithm. In a comparison with other approaches, this method achieves the best results. The statistical results and the performance of the KNN predictor indicate that the consideration of the network-wide traffic is a valuable feature for predictors and a promising way to develop more accurate algorithms in the future.