Covariance Matrix Estimation with Non Uniform and Data Dependent Missing Observations

Abstract: In this paper we study covariance estimation with missing data. We consider missing data mechanisms that can be independent of the data, or have a time varying dependency. Additionally, observed variables may have arbitrary (non uniform) and dependent observation probabilities. For each mechanism, we construct an unbiased estimator and obtain bounds for the expected value of their estimation error in operator norm. Our bounds are equivalent, up to constant and logarithmic factors, to state of the art bounds for complete and uniform missing observations. Furthermore, for the more general non uniform and dependent cases, the proposed bounds are new or improve upon previous results. Our error estimates depend on quantities we call scaled effective rank, which generalize the effective rank to account for missing observations. All the estimators studied in this work have the same asymptotic convergence rate (up to logarithmic factors).