Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models: I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework (1905.04353v1)

Abstract: The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behaviour of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS), and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang-Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary (DCHB) model, and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation, and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series. We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.