Symbolic Exact Inference for Discrete Probabilistic Programs

Abstract: The computational burden of probabilistic inference remains a hurdle for applying probabilistic programming languages to practical problems of interest. In this work, we provide a semantic and algorithmic foundation for efficient exact inference on discrete-valued finite-domain imperative probabilistic programs. We leverage and generalize efficient inference procedures for Bayesian networks, which exploit the structure of the network to decompose the inference task, thereby avoiding full path enumeration. To do this, we first compile probabilistic programs to a symbolic representation. Then we adapt techniques from the probabilistic logic programming and artificial intelligence communities in order to perform inference on the symbolic representation. We formalize our approach, prove it sound, and experimentally validate it against existing exact and approximate inference techniques. We show that our inference approach is competitive with inference procedures specialized for Bayesian networks, thereby expanding the class of probabilistic programs that can be practically analyzed.