Asset Price Distributions and Efficient Markets

Abstract: We explore a decomposition in which returns on a large class of portfolios relative to the market depend on a smooth non-negative drift and changes in the asset price distribution. This decomposition is obtained using general continuous semimartingale price representations, and is thus consistent with virtually any asset pricing model. Fluctuations in portfolio relative returns depend on stochastic time-varying dispersion in asset prices. Thus, our framework uncovers an asset pricing factor whose existence emerges from an accounting identity universal across different economic and financial environments, a fact that has deep implications for market efficiency. In particular, in a closed, dividend-free market in which asset price dispersion is relatively constant, a large class of portfolios must necessarily outperform the market portfolio over time. We show that price dispersion in commodity futures markets has increased only slightly, and confirm the existence of substantial excess returns that co-vary with changes in price dispersion as predicted by our theory.