Predicting Conversion of Mild Cognitive Impairments to Alzheimer's Disease and Exploring Impact of Neuroimaging

Abstract: Nowadays, a lot of scientific efforts are concentrated on the diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) applying deep learning methods to neuroimaging data. Even for 2017, there were published more than a hundred papers dedicated to AD diagnosis, whereas only a few works considered a problem of mild cognitive impairments (MCI) conversion to the AD. However, the conversion prediction is an important problem since approximately 15% of patients with MCI converges to the AD every year. In the current work, we are focusing on the conversion prediction using brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging and clinical data, such as demographics, cognitive assessments, genetic, and biochemical markers. First of all, we applied state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms on the neuroimaging data and compared these results with two machine learning algorithms that we fit using the clinical data. As a result, the models trained on the clinical data outperform the deep learning algorithms applied to the MR images. To explore the impact of neuroimaging further, we trained a deep feed-forward embedding using similarity learning with Histogram loss on all available MRIs and obtained 64-dimensional vector representation of neuroimaging data. The use of learned representation from the deep embedding allowed to increase the quality of prediction based on the neuroimaging. Finally, the current results on this dataset show that the neuroimaging does affect conversion prediction, however, cannot noticeably increase the quality of the prediction. The best results of predicting MCI-to-AD conversion are provided by XGBoost algorithm trained on the clinical and embedding data. The resulting accuracy is 0.76 +- 0.01 and the area under the ROC curve - 0.86 +- 0.01.