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The Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator. I - The Inner Edges of Planetary Systems

Published 21 May 2018 in astro-ph.EP and astro-ph.SR | (1805.08211v1)

Abstract: The Kepler survey provides a statistical census of planetary systems out to the habitable zone. Because most planets are non-transiting, orbital architectures are best estimated using simulated observations of ensemble populations. Here, we introduce EPOS, the Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator, to estimate the prevalence and orbital architectures of multi-planet systems based on the latest Kepler data release, DR25. We estimate that at least 42% of sun-like stars have nearly coplanar planetary systems with 7 or more exoplanets. The fraction of stars with at least one planet within 1 au could be as high as 100% depending on assumptions about the distribution of single transiting planets. We estimate an occurrence rate of planets in the habitable zone around sun-like stars of eta_earth=36+-14%. The innermost planets in multi-planet systems are clustered around an orbital period of 10 days (0.1 au), reminiscent of the protoplanetary disk inner edge or could be explained by a planet trap at that location. Only a small fraction of planetary systems have the innermost planet at long orbital periods, with fewer than ~8% and ~3% having no planet interior to the orbit of Mercury and Venus, respectively. These results reinforce the view that the solar system is not a typical planetary system, but an outlier among the distribution of known exoplanetary systems. We predict that at least half of the habitable zone exoplanets are accompanied by (non-transiting) planets at shorter orbital periods, hence knowledge of a close-in exoplanet could be used as a way to optimize the search for Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone with future direct imaging missions.

Citations (143)

Summary

Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator: Insights into the Inner Edges of Planetary Systems

The paper titled "The Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator. I - The Inner Edges of Planetary Systems" by Mulders et al. introduces the Exoplanet Population Observation Simulator (EPOS), a sophisticated tool designed to simulate and analyze the orbital architectures of multi-planet systems using statistical observations derived from the Kepler mission. The research provides insights into the distribution and frequency of exoplanets, particularly focusing on the inner edges of these systems. This essay provides an overview of the essential findings, methodologies, and implications of the study.

Methodology and Key Findings

The EPOS employs a forward modeling approach, allowing researchers to simulate the population of exoplanets and compare these simulations to observations, taking into account the detection biases inherent in the Kepler survey. The study finds that more than 42% of sun-like stars harbor nearly coplanar planetary systems with at least seven planets. Intriguingly, nearly 100% of stars could host at least one planet within 1 astronomical unit (AU), depending on the assumptions about single transiting planets. This suggests a high prevalence of planets in close proximity to their host stars.

A notable discovery is the clustering of innermost planets around an orbital period of 10 days (0.1 AU), possibly reflecting the inner edge of protoplanetary disks or a planet trap. Such clusters reinforce the understanding that the configuration of the Solar System is atypical compared to these prevalent exoplanetary systems, as a minimal fraction have their innermost planets at the longer orbital periods of Mercury or Venus. This aligns with the authors' bold claim that our solar system represents an outlier in the context of exoplanetary distributions.

Numerical and Statistical Insights

The researchers provide robust numerical evidence for their claims, offering that the occurrence rate for planets within the habitable zone around sun-like stars ((\eta_\oplus)) is approximately 36%, with a 14% uncertainty margin. These statistical estimates are crucial for developing a nuanced understanding of the potential for life-supporting conditions in distant planetary systems.

Implications and Speculations

The findings have wide-ranging implications for both theoretical and practical explorations in astrophysics. The clustering of planets near 0.1 AU could influence future models of planet formation and migration. The data suggesting non-transiting companions to habitable zone exoplanets could strategically inform future observational campaigns, particularly those employing direct imaging techniques to discover Earth-sized planets.

From a theoretical perspective, the paper challenges existing models to account for the apparent non-standard nature of our solar system, urging a re-evaluation of why inner terrestrial planets may be absent or less frequent in observed exoplanetary systems. This includes implications for our understanding of the dynamical processes that shape planetary system architectures.

Future Directions

Despite the comprehensive nature of the simulations, the authors acknowledge constraints imposed by the observational limits of the Kepler mission. The paper posits possible extensions of this research, suggesting enhancements in detection methodologies and improvements in the integration of EPOS with other observational data, such as radial velocity and microlensing surveys, and future missions like TESS and LUVOIR. Further, the potential discovery of planets in more varied orbital configurations could provide additional data to refine current models.

In summary, Mulders et al. present a robust framework to statistically interrogate the nature of exoplanetary systems. Their insights contribute to the broader dialogue on planetary formation and habitability, offering a valuable tool for advancing our understanding of diverse planetary architectures within our galaxy.

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