Analytically Modeling Unmanaged Intersections with Microscopic Vehicle Interactions

Abstract: With the emergence of autonomous vehicles, it is important to understand their impact on the transportation system. However, conventional traffic simulations are time-consuming. In this paper, we introduce an analytical traffic model for unmanaged intersections accounting for microscopic vehicle interactions. The macroscopic property, i.e., delay at the intersection, is modeled as an event-driven stochastic dynamic process, whose dynamics encode the microscopic vehicle behaviors. The distribution of macroscopic properties can be obtained through either direct analysis or event-driven simulation. They are more efficient than conventional (time-driven) traffic simulation, and capture more microscopic details compared to conventional macroscopic flow models. We illustrate the efficiency of this method by delay analyses under two different policies at a two-lane intersection. The proposed model allows for 1) efficient and effective comparison among different policies, 2) policy optimization, 3) traffic prediction, and 4) system optimization (e.g., infrastructure and protocol).