Calibration of a Density-based Model of Urban Morphogenesis

Abstract: We study a stochastic model of urban growth generating spatial distributions of population densities at an intermediate mesoscopic scale. The model is based on the antagonist interplay between the two opposite abstract processes of aggregation (preferential attachment) and diffusion (urban sprawl). Introducing indicators to quantify precisely urban form, the model is first statistically validated and intensively explored to understand its complex behavior across the parameter space. We then compute real morphological measures on local areas of size 50km covering all European Union, and show that the model can reproduce most of existing urban morphologies in Europe. It implies that the morphological dimension of urban growth processes at this scale are sufficiently captured by the two abstract processes of aggregation and diffusion.