Trends in U. S. Storminess 1949--2009 (1701.06993v1)

Abstract: We use an extensive NOAA database of hourly precipitation data from 5995 stations in the 48 contiguous United States over the period 1949--2009 to investigate possible trends in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, defined as periods of intense precipitation. The frequency and intensity of these events are quantified by a dimensionless storminess, defined as the variance of the hourly rainfall at a site normalized by the square of the mean rainfall at that site. For 1722 stations with sufficient data, we compute the rate of change of the logarithm of the storminess at each station and set bounds on its mean (over stations) trend; use of the logarithms weights trends at calm stations equally to those at stormy stations and enhances the statistical power of the mean. These results are confirmed by reversing the order of averaging: first computing, for each year, the mean (over stations) logarithm of the storminess, and then fitting to its trend. We set $2\sigma$ upper bounds of 0.001/y (doubling or halving time scales $> 1000$ y) on any trend, increasing or decreasing.