Long Term Trends in Atmospheric Pressure and its Variance (1902.01307v1)

Abstract: We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate trends in sea-level atmospheric pressures, their variance and the variance of their day-to-day differences in nine regions of the world. Changes in pressure reflect the addition of water vapor to the warming atmosphere and changes in circulation patterns. Pressure gradients drive fronts and storm systems, and pressure differences, a meteorological parameter distinct from temperature and precipitation, are a proxy for storminess. In eight of nine regions the mean sea level pressure decreased at a rate significant at the $2\sigma$ (95\% confidence) level if correlations between stations are small, but this nominal assumption is uncertain. We find lower bounds on the characteristic time scale of change of the sea level pressure variance and its differences between consecutive days. Depending on assumptions about the uncertainties of the mean values of trends averaged over many ($> 1000$ in some regions) stations, these lower bounds on the time scales of change of the variances range from $\sim 100$ to several thousand years. Trends in the variance of day-to-day pressure differences are negative and nominally significant in six of nine regions. Nominally significant trends in the pressure variances themselves are positive in three regions and negative in one.