Historical contingency and entrenchment in protein evolution under purifying selection

Abstract: The fitness contribution of an allele at one genetic site may depend on alleles at other sites, a phenomenon known as epistasis. Epistasis can profoundly influence the process of evolution in populations under selection, and can shape the course of protein evolution across divergent species. Whereas epistasis between adaptive substitutions has been the subject of extensive study, relatively little is known about epistasis under purifying selection. Here we use mechanistic models of thermodynamic stability in a ligand-binding protein to explore the structure of epistatic interactions between substitutions that fix in protein sequences under purifying selection. We find that the selection coefficients of mutations that are nearly-neutral when they fix are highly contingent on the presence of preceding mutations. Conversely, mutations that are nearly-neutral when they fix are subsequently entrenched due to epistasis with later substitutions. Our evolutionary model includes insertions and deletions, as well as point mutations, and so it allows us to quantify epistasis within each of these classes of mutations, and also to study the evolution of protein length. We find that protein length remains largely constant over time, because indels are more deleterious than point mutations. Our results imply that, even under purifying selection, protein sequence evolution is highly contingent on history and so it cannot be predicted by the phenotypic effects of mutations assayed in the wild-type sequence.