Maximizing Kepler science return per telemetered pixel: Detailed models of the focal plane in the two-wheel era

Abstract: Kepler's immense photometric precision to date was maintained through satellite stability and precise pointing. In this white paper, we argue that image modeling--fitting the Kepler-downlinked raw pixel data--can vastly improve the precision of Kepler in pointing-degraded two-wheel mode. We argue that a non-trivial modeling effort may permit continuance of photometry at 10-ppm-level precision. We demonstrate some baby steps towards precise models in both data-driven (flexible) and physics-driven (interpretably parameterized) modes. We demonstrate that the expected drift or jitter in positions in the two-weel era will help with constraining calibration parameters. In particular, we show that we can infer the device flat-field at higher than pixel resolution; that is, we can infer pixel-to-pixel variations in intra-pixel sensitivity. These results are relevant to almost any scientific goal for the repurposed mission; image modeling ought to be a part of any two-wheel repurpose for the satellite. We make other recommendations for Kepler operations, but fundamentally advocate that the project stick with its core mission of finding and characterizing Earth analogs. [abridged]