Survival of near-critical branching Brownian motion

Abstract: Consider a system of particles performing branching Brownian motion with negative drift $\mu = \sqrt{2 - \epsilon}$ and killed upon hitting zero. Initially there is one particle at $x>0$. Kesten showed that the process survives with positive probability if and only if $\epsilon>0$. Here we are interested in the asymptotics as $\eps\to 0$ of the survival probability $Q_\mu(x)$. It is proved that if $L= \pi/\sqrt{\epsilon}$ then for all $x \in \R$, $\lim_{\epsilon \to 0} Q_\mu(L+x) = \theta(x) \in (0,1)$ exists and is a travelling wave solution of the Fisher-KPP equation. Furthermore, we obtain sharp asymptotics of the survival probability when $x<L$ and $L-x \to \infty$. The proofs rely on probabilistic methods developed by the authors in a previous work. This completes earlier work by Harris, Harris and Kyprianou and confirms predictions made by Derrida and Simon, which were obtained using nonrigorous PDE methods.