Probing the Trajectories of Reasoning Traces in Large Language Models

Abstract: LLMs increasingly solve difficult problems by producing "reasoning traces" before emitting a final response. However, it remains unclear how accuracy and decision commitment evolve along a reasoning trajectory, and whether intermediate trace segments provide answer-relevant information beyond generic length or stylistic effects. Here, we propose a protocol to systematically probe the trajectories of reasoning traces in LLMs by 1) generating a model's reasoning trace, 2) truncating it at fixed token-percentiles, and 3) injecting each partial trace back into the model (or a different model) to measure the induced distribution over answer choices via next-token probabilities. We apply this protocol to the open-source Qwen3-4B/-8B/-14B and gpt-oss-20b/-120b models across the multiple-choice GPQA Diamond and MMLU-Pro benchmarks. We find that accuracy and decision commitment consistently increase as the percentage of provided reasoning tokens grows. These gains are primarily driven by relevant content in the model generation rather than context length or generic "reasoning style" effects. Stronger models often backtrack successfully from incorrect partial traces, but immediate answers often remain anchored in the weaker model's incorrect response. More broadly, we show that trajectory probing provides diagnostics for efficient and safer deployment of reasoning models as the measurements can inform practical trace-handling and monitoring policies that improve reliability without assuming intermediate tokens are inherently faithful explanations.