Modeling ICD-10 Morbidity and Multidimensional Poverty as a Spatial Network: Evidence from Thailand

Abstract: Health and poverty in Thailand exhibit pronounced geographic structuring, yet the extent to which they operate as interconnected regional systems remains insufficiently understood. This study analyzes ICD-10 chapter-level morbidity and multidimensional poverty as outcomes embedded in a spatial interaction network. Interpreting Thailand's 76 provinces as nodes within a fixed-degree regional graph, we apply tools from spatial econometrics and social network analysis, including Moran's I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and Spatial Durbin Models (SDM), to assess spatial dependence and cross-provincial spillovers. Our findings reveal strong spatial clustering across multiple ICD-10 chapters, with persistent high-high morbidity zones, particularly for digestive, respiratory, musculoskeletal, and symptom-based diseases, emerging in well-defined regional belts. SDM estimates demonstrate that spillover effects from neighboring provinces frequently exceed the influence of local deprivation, especially for living-condition, health-access, accessibility, and poor-household indicators. These patterns are consistent with contagion and contextual influence processes well established in social network theory. By framing morbidity and poverty as interdependent attributes on a spatial network, this study contributes to the growing literature on structural diffusion, health inequality, and regional vulnerability. The results highlight the importance of coordinated policy interventions across provincial boundaries and demonstrate how network-based modeling can uncover the spatial dynamics of health and deprivation.