Bistability, Oscillations, and Multistability on Hycean Planets (2510.24224v1)

Abstract: Hycean planets are hypothetical exoplanets characterized by $H_2O$ oceans and $H_2$-rich atmospheres. These planets are high-priority targets for biosignature searches, as they combine abundant surface liquid water with easy-to-characterize $H_2$-rich atmospheres. Perhaps their most unusual climate feature is convective inhibition, which can dramatically alter a planet's temperature structure. However, so far hycean planets have mostly been investigated using 1D models that do not account for convective inhibition, and its effects are still poorly understood. This work develops pen-and-paper theory to analyze the effects of moist convective inhibition on hycean planets. The theory is tested and verified against a 1D radiative-convective model. We show that hycean planets near the onset of convective inhibition can exhibit either bistability or oscillations, due to the inhibition layer's trapping of heat and moisture. Meanwhile, hot hycean planets exhibit multistability, in which the inhibition layer and surface climate show multiple stable equilibria due to the lack of constraints on the water cycle inside the inhibition layer. The water cycle inside the inhibition layer is influenced by numerous processes that are challenging to resolve in 1D, including turbulent diffusion, convective overshoot and large-scale circulations. Our results demonstrate that hycean planets have unexpectedly rich climate dynamics. Meanwhile, previous claims about hycean planets should be treated with caution until confirmed with more self-consistent 1D and 3D models; this includes the claim that K2-18b might be habitable, and the proposal to infer $H_2O$ oceans on sub-Neptunes from JWST measurements of chemical species in their upper atmospheres.