Ionospheric and Plasmaspheric Delay Characterization for Lunar Terrestrial GNSS Receivers with Global Core Plasma Model

Abstract: Recent advancements in lunar positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) have demonstrated that terrestrial GNSS signals, including weak sidelobe transmissions, can be exploited for lunar spacecraft positioning and timing. While GNSS-based navigation at the Moon has been validated recently, unmodeled ionospheric and plasmaspheric delays remain a significant error source, particularly given the unique signal geometry and extended propagation paths. This paper characterizes these delays using the Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) and a custom low-cost ray-tracing algorithm that iteratively solves for bent signal paths. We simulate first-, second-, and third-order group delays, as well as excess path length from ray bending, for GNSS signals received at both lunar orbit and the lunar south pole under varying solar and geomagnetic conditions. Results show that mean group delays are typically on the order of 1 m, but can exceed 100 m for low-altitude ray paths during high solar activity, while bending delays are generally smaller but non-negligible for low-altitude ray paths. We also quantify the influence of signal frequency, geomagnetic $K_p$ index, and solar R12 index. These findings inform the design of robust positioning and timing algorithms that utilize terrestrial GNSS signals.